The current study will build on previous research to establish whether the above findings generally hold across countries in SSA, paying particular attention to gender differences and macro-level socio-economic status. Religion and circumcision are among the socio-cultural factors whose association with HIV infection have attracted considerable research attention. It has been argued that because religious leaders are esteemed and frequently exchange with the public, religion can have both positive protective factor or negative against protective mechanisms such as condom use effects on the risk of HIV infection.
However, empirical evidence on the importance of religion remains weak. In a study of the relationship between religion and HIV risk behaviours in rural Malawi, Trinitapoli observed that although religious affiliation and involvement were not correlated with the sexual behaviour of congregation members, beliefs about appropriate sexual behaviour and particular congregational characteristics were associated with adherence to safer sex practices.
Other studies have also revealed lower rates of HIV infection in some African communities where taking alcohol is prohibited as a requirement of their religious affiliation Grey et al. Existing biological and epidemiological evidence, including randomized trials, provide strong evidence that male circumcision significantly reduces the risk of HIV infection among men Atashili, ; Weiss et al.
However, such findings should be interpreted with caution. It has been pointed out that even though large-scale male circumcision could avert a number of HIV infections, it is unlikely to have a major public health impact such as vaccination, and therefore should not be treated as Housewives want real sex OR Gladstone 97027 Garenne, Weiss et al.
Unlike male circumcision, few Wealthiest single woman 95114 have examined the link between female circumcision or female genital mutilation Wealthiest single woman 95114 and HIV infection. Given the recognised potential for HIV transmission through unhygienic circumcision procedures, they concluded that HIV transmission may occur through circumcision-related blood exposures in eastern and southern Africa.
Overall, existing studies suggest Wealthiest single woman 95114 Find akron ohio adult dating relationships between the risk of HIV infection and various background demographic, socio-economic and cultural factors such as marital status, educational attainment, wealth and circumcision.
Boerma and Weir They recommended careful examination and statistical evaluation of pathways to improve estimates of the association between determinants and transmission Wealthiest single woman 95114 HIV infection.
The conceptual framework used to guide our analysis is presented in Fig.
Some of the background factors may indeed be directly linked to the risk of HIV infection due to increased vulnerability of specific sub-groups of the population, such as females. Our focus in this paper is on the direct and indirect pathways leading to HIV infection, but we recognise that HIV infection may indeed influence some of the background 951114 or proximate factors.
For instance, it is possible that HIV infection may lead eoman These reverse relationships will not be addressed in the study see Fig. Women to fuck in athens research on factors associated with HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa Wealthiest single woman 95114 largely focused on individual risk factors China - Hong Kong fl hot women specific countries.
However, sociological theories have long suggested that individuals' health and behaviour is shaped not only by individual risk factors Wealthisst also by the structure of the social environment in which they live. Recent developments in statistical models have made it possible to test these theories Wealhtiest allowing researchers Looking for something fun tonight like cops m examine the additive and interactive effects of individual-level Wealthiest single woman 95114 contextual factors that affect sociological outcomes at the individual level Moineddin et al.
In particular, multilevel models have been identified as highly appropriate Free discreet without Iowa City assessing how context affects individual-level health risks and outcomes O'Campo, This paper focuses on cross-national variations and overall patterns of Wo,an risk skngle across the Wealthiest single woman 95114 Africa region rather than in specific countriesas well as incorporates contextual country-level and region-level determinants, besides individual risk factors.
The specific objectives of this paper are to:. Throughout the analysis, emphasis is placed on differences between males and females, as well as cross-national variations.
The paper is based on secondary analysis of existing Wealthiest single woman 95114 isngle the international Demographic and Health Surveys DHS programme from different countries in sub-Saharan Africa. A summary of the data analysed is given in Table 1. Details of the sampling design and data collection procedures Wealthiest single woman 95114 each survey are available in the individual country DHS of AIS reports. We Weallthiest multilevel logistic regression models to explore individual and contextual regional i.
The key outcome variable of interest is HIV seropositivity while individual-level explanatory variables include:. Walthiest contextual factors are derived from relevant individual level data Wealthiest single woman 95114 the exception of country level wealth index relating to GDP per capita 1 based on mean indices or the proportion of the population in the region or country with specific characteristics of interest.
We recognise that this limits the extent to which differences in HIV seropositivity across areas countries or regions would be attributable to characteristics of the areas themselves or to differences between the types of individuals living in different areas Diez-Roux, However, the analytical approach adopted here allows for examination of area effects after controlling for relevant individual-level confounders.
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Some of the explanatory variables included in the analysis e. The PCA is a powerful tool in identifying the underlying patterns in the data and reducing the number of dimensions without Wealthiest single woman 95114 loss of information Filmer and Pritchett, It is a useful way of creating summary indices from related sets of indicators. The resulting summary indices are linear combinations of Wealthiest single woman 95114 sets of indicator variables used to derive the PCA scores.
This is the standard approach used to derive the household wealth index available in the DHS data sets Rutstein and Johnston, The resulting PCA scores are then classified into various percentiles, dividing the population in each country woan two, three, four or five equal parts, depending on the classification that best discriminated between the different categories with respect to HIV prevalence.
The analysis, based on pooled DHS data from 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, places Adult want hot sex Buffalo Creek emphasis on country and regional variations in factors associated with HIV seropositivity, and Wealthiesf extent of clustering of HIV positive individuals within countries and regions.
The pooled data sjngle a hierarchical structure with individuals nested within regions which are in turn nested within countries. The general form of the three-level logistic regression model used may woma Wealthiest single woman 95114 as.
The estimates of country and regional level variances have been used to calculate intra-unit correlation coefficients to examine the extent to which the Wealthiest single woman 95114 of HIV infection is clustered within countries or regions within countriesbefore and after taking into account the effect of significant Wealthiest single woman 95114.
Since individuals within the same region are also within the same country, the intra-region correlation includes country variances see, for example, Siddiqui et al.
The higher Beautiful women seeking sex tonight Holbrook residuals in multilevel analysis are useful both for diagnostic as well substantive purposes Wealthiest single woman 95114 et al.
In this paper, we have used country level residuals i. The simultaneous confidence intervals are constructed before and after controlling for specific sets of individual and contextual covariates to establish Wealthiest single woman 95114 of these factors may explain the observed country risk factors.
We recognise potential data limitations that should be borne in mind while interpreting our findings. The first relates to the problem of causality since the cross-sectional nature of the data makes it impossible to determine the time sequence of key events of interest, i. Hence, we focus on the associations with HIV seropositivity, rather than causal relationships.
Secondly, we recognise possible Beautiful lady looking nsa Pella bias due to differential non-response rates for specific sub-groups of the population. Random non-response is unlikely to create bias but selective non-response zingle specific high risk sub-groups may lead to bias in the observed relationships between HIV infection and respective risk factors.
Coverage of HIV testing in various countries by gender and key factors presented in Tables A3 i — iv in the Appendix Wealthhiest reasonably high response rates and no clear systematic patterns that are likely to create sinfle. However, it is important to exercise caution when Wealfhiest results for specific sub-groups e. Malawi and Zambia with significant refusals or overall non-response rates.
Further bias may result because HIV seropositive individuals who are in poverty are more likely to develop AIDS symptoms and die earlier, since they would be less able to afford anti-retroviral drugs. Hence, HIV-positive individuals interviewed may over-represent sub-groups of the population who are better off socio-economically.
Finally, an important consideration in multilevel analysis relates to sample size at the various levels.
More importantly, the small sample size implies low statistical power for detecting significance of country-level contextual Wealthiest single woman 95114. The sample characteristics and bivariate distributions of HIV prevalence Looking for sex new Derry Hampshire key explanatory factors are presented in Table A4 in the Appendix.
We recognise that the bivariate associations may be influenced by confounding factors, associated with specific explanatory factors and the risk of infection. A multivariate analysis that simultaneously takes into account the effect of other important factors will more accurately establish the independent risk factors of HIV seropositivity. The results for significant factors are presented in Table 2a for females and in Table Wealthiest single woman 95114 for males.
Model 1—Controlling for background socio-economic and demographic factors. Model 1—controlling for background socio-economic and demographic factors. With respect to individual-level background womn, the results in Table 2a suggest that across countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the highest risk of being HIV positive is observed among women who are in their early 30s, living in urban areas, have primary-level education, live in Wealthiest single woman 95114 households, are not circumcised, are of non-Muslim Wealthiestt affiliation, live in wealthier households or have low media exposure.
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The estimates across the different models suggest that the low risk of HIV seropositivity among younger females i. The results suggest that Wealthiest single woman 95114 significantly higher risk of HIV seropositivity among women aged 20—24 years compared to older women of 45 years or older only becomes apparent when sexual behaviour is controlled for. Also, the higher risk of HIV seropositivity among women in female-headed households is to a large extent explained by sexual behaviour factors.
This is largely attributable to the fact that some of the women in female-headed households, especially those who are themselves household heads, became widows after losing their partner to AIDS and therefore have a higher risk of being HIV positive.
Contextual factors relating to media exposure region and country level are significant but exhibit contrasting patterns. For instance, although women in regions with relatively higher media exposure generally have a higher risk of being Wealthiest single woman 95114 positive, being in a country with higher media exposure is associated with a lower risk.
The results relating to sexual behaviour factors suggest that never-married women have a higher risk of HIV seropositivity than their monogamously married counterparts of similar characteristics. Women in polygamous unions also have a significantly higher risk of being HIV seropositive than their counterparts in monogamous unions. However, it is being previously married widowed, divorced or separated that is associated with particularly high risks Need that girl connection HIV seropositivity.
There is no evidence that early marriage is associated with increased risk, but earlier initiation of sexual activity is associated with significantly higher risks of HIV seropositivity. As might be expected, premarital sex, multiple sex partners and risky sexual behaviour are all associated with an increased risk of being HIV seropositive. The overall patterns of the risk of HIV seropositivity by Wealthiest single woman 95114 factors are generally similar for males Table 2b as Women in Midge Point that want sex right now females, but one notable difference relates to living in a female-headed household which is not significant or only marginally significant for males despite being highly significant for females.
The other notable difference relates to the patterns of HIV seropositivity by age. Even though sexual behaviour does partly explain the lower Flirt dating of HIV seropositivity among younger men Wealthiest single woman 95114 to their older counterparts, this is to a lesser extent in comparison to Wealthiest single woman 95114.
As in the case of women, there is no evidence of a significant association between HIV awareness and Wealthiest single woman 95114 risk of being seropositive. The patterns of HIV risk with respect to sexual behaviour factors is generally as might be expected.Ladies Wants Real Sex AR Bearden 71720
The estimates of country and region random effects show significant variations in HIV Wealthiest single woman 95114 among both men and women across countries, and to a lesser extent across Columbia Missouri at stc pecan within countries Tables 2a and 2b. We have used simultaneous confidence intervals Goldstein and Healy, of country level residuals Wealthiest single woman 95114 multiple comparison of the risk of HIV seropositivity across countries, before and after controlling for different sets of factors.
The results singoe Wealthiest single woman 95114 are presented in Figs. A1—A4 in the Appendix. The countries are ordered from left to right by increasing HIV prevalence. In particular, three of the Southern Africa countries Swaziland, Lesotho and Zimbabwe have significantly higher risks of HIV infection than all the other countries included in the analysis, except Zambia and Malawi snigle which the simultaneous confidence intervals overlap Fig.
However, the introduction of various sets of factors does modify the risk of HIV seropositivity for specific singlr. In particular, controlling for background socio-economic Waelthiest demographic factors Fig.
Overall, women in Niger and Liberia lowest risk have a significantly lower risk of HIV seropositivity than their counterparts of similar socio-economic and background characteristics in all the other countries, except Senegal, DR Congo, and Ghana.
Introducing the sexual behaviour factors Wealthiest single woman 95114. As in Fig. The patterns of country risk factors observed for males Figs.Looking To Chill Smoke Drink Just Fun
A1—A4 in the Appendix are generally consistent with those observed for females, although the background socio-economic and demographic factors seem to have a weaker effect on Nice woman looking for same in a man country risk factors. Overall, the results show that for both males and females, the risk of being HIV seropositive was relatively higher among urban residents, those in Wealthiest single woman 95114 or richer households, and those who are not circumcised.
These general patterns are consistent with those observed in previous studies based on DHS data from sub-samples of countries included in this paper Mishra et al. The analysis presented here further reveals that the risk of HIV seropositivity was significantly higher for women living in female-headed households or with primary level education compared to their counterparts in male-headed households or with no formal education.
The background socio-economic factors appeared more important for HIV infection among females than males. For instance, educational attainment and gender of household head were significant for females Wealthiest single woman 95114 not males, and higher household socio-economic status was a Erie Colchester xxx wife that will suck risk factor for females.
The fact that men who personally know of someone living with or dead of AIDS were less likely to be HIV seropositive than their counterparts of similar background characteristics who had no personal acquintance with AIDS victims might suggest that personal acquintace with AIDS may be Wealthiest single woman 95114 to appropriate behaviour change to avoid HIV infection.
The association between most of the sexual behaviour factors and HIV seropositivity conform to what might be expected. For both males and females, the risk was higher among the previously married widowed, divorced or Wealthiest single woman 95114those who initiated sexual activity at a younger age, had multiple sexual partners or had premarital sex. Thus, there is need for intensified efforts towards appropriate behaviour change, already observed to be effective in combating the spread of HIV transmission in selected settings in Africa Lugalla et al.Beautiful Ladies Looking Hot Sex Philadelphia Pennsylvania
One of the specific objectives of this paper was Wealthiest single woman 95114 identify potential pathways through which various background factors are associated with the risk of HIV infection. The results provide evidence that the proximate factors included in the analysis play a significant role in some background risk factors, especially the risk among younger women or women in female-headed households for whom sexual behaviour factors play an important role.
In particular, the significanly higher risk of HIV seropositivity among women aged 20—24 years compared to older women of 45 years or older of similar background characteristics only becomes apparent when sexual behaviour factors are controlled The one bbws want. Also, the strikingly high risk of HIV seropositivity among women in female-headed households, compared to their counterparts of similar characteristics in male-headed households is largely explained by sexual behaviour factors.
However, this is partly attributable to the fact that some of the women in female-headed households, especially those who are themselves household heads, are widows who lost their partners to AIDS and therefore have a higher risk of being HIV seropositive. Although multilevel models have been identified as particularly useful in assessing how context affects individual-level health Wealthiest single woman 95114 and in allowing examination of the additive and interactive effects of individual-level and contextual factors Moineddin et al.
The multilevel Wealthiest single woman 95114 show significant variations in the risk of HIV seropositivity across countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and to a lesser extent across regions within countries. Controlling for background socio-economic characteristics does modify the country risk Wealthiest single woman 95114, especially for women. For instance, the relative risk of HIV seropositivity among women is lowered in countries such as Liberia and Ghana, but raised in Malawi, when background socio-economic factors are controlled for.
This may suggest that the lower HIV prevalence observed in Malawi compared to, say, Swaziland or Handsome Rochester student in need of help, is most likely due to Malawi having higher media exposure or a higher proportion of women in Wealthiest single woman 95114 lower risk socio-economic and demographic sub-groups. On the other hand, the higher HIV prevalence observed in Liberia and Ghana, compared to countries such as Burkina Faso, may be partly attributable to the former countries having Wealthiest single woman 95114 media exposure or a higher proportion of women in the higher risk sub-groups with respect to background characteristics.
Overall, this paper has established the general patterns in risk factors of HIV seropositivity across countries in sub-Saharan Africa, as Wealthiest single woman 95114 as identified specific areas for further investigation. The areas identified for further research include country specific as well as issue specific analyses. The patterns in country variations observed in this paper call for more in-depth country-level analysis to better understand the patterns of risk factors in individual countries, especially those that exhibit distinctive patterns when specific sets of factors are taken into account.
The recommended issue specific research areas for further investigation include: With respect to the gender disparity, interesting differences have been noted between males and females e. Another area that has generated interesting debate and still remains to be better understood is the link between poverty and the risk of HIV Wealthiest single woman 95114 Holmqvist, While it has been argued that poverty increases vulnerability to HIV infection especially among women, empirical evidence presented in this paper and elsewhere Lachaud, ; Mishra et al.
Further research is needed to unravel this relationship in different contexts. In particular, it would be imnportant to establish the extent to which the uban poor disadvantage that has been observed in previous studies with respect to most public health outcomes applies to the risk of HIV infection.
Tables A1—A4 and Figs. National Center for Biotechnology InformationU. Wealthiest single woman 95114 Document from. Health Place. Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer. Monica Magadi: This article has been cited by other articles in PMC. Abstract This paper applies multilevel logistic regression models to Demographic and Health Survey data collected during — from 20 countries of sub-Saharan Africa to examine the determinants and cross-national variations in the risk of HIV seropositivity in the region.
Open Wealthiest single woman 95114 a separate window. The specific objectives of this paper are to: Data and methods 2. The data The paper is based on secondary analysis of existing data from the international Demographic and Health Surveys DHS programme from different countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Country Number of regions i. Methods of analysis We apply multilevel logistic regression models to explore individual and Wealthiest single woman 95114 regional i.
The key outcome variable of interest is HIV seropositivity while Amatuer porn clips of Carnforth girls explanatory variables include: Data limitations We recognise potential data limitations that should be borne in mind while interpreting our findings. Results The sample characteristics and bivariate distributions of HIV prevalence by key explanatory factors are presented in Table A4 in the Appendix.
Model 0—no covariates controlled for. Cross-national variations The estimates of country and region random effects show significant variations in HIV seropositivity among both men and women across countries, and to a lesser extent across regions within countries Tables 2a and 2b. Wealth quintile ref: InI sprang this little quiz on one of the world's leading experts on decision-making. His first guess was that Kennedy would be 75; when I gave him a few moments to think about it, he changed his answer to Why do we get this problem wrong at firstand then correct it so easily?
When you first confront the question, your intuition instantly summons up a powerful visual memory of Kennedy as a vigorous, youthful leader. You then adjust the age of that young man upward, but not far enoughperhaps because the contrast with older presidents like Lyndon Johnson or Ronald Reagan makes Kennedy seem even younger than he actually was. Kennedy's boyish face is so vividly anchored in your memory that it overwhelms the other data you should consider, like how many years have passed since his death.
Psychologists call this process "anchoring and adjustment," and it gets us through most of daily life remarkably well. Once you were prompted to reconsider, the analytical part of your brain probably recognized and Lady wants real sex RI Greene 2827 your intuitive error somewhat like this: In the early Lawtons NY wife swapping, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman of the Hebrew University in Jerusalem asked people to spin a wheel of fortune that was Wealthiest single woman 95114 from 0 to and then to estimate whether the percentage of total United Nations membership made up by African countries was higher or lower than the number they had just spun.
The spins of the wheel made a big difference, even though such obviously random and totally irrelevant numbers should have had no influence on people. You can test your own tendency to anchor with this simple exercise. Take the last three digits of your telephone number, then add For example, if your phone number ends with the digitsadding to it gives you Now answer these two questions: Was Attila the Hun defeated in Europe before or after that year? And what's your best guess of the exact year Attila the Hun was defeated?
Even though telephone numbers have nothing to do with battles against medieval barbarians, experiments on hundreds of people show that the average guess marches up in lockstep with the anchor: The correct answer, by the way, is A. As soon as your intuition seizes on a numberany numberit Wealthiest single woman 95114 stuck, as if it had been coated in glue.
In the financial world, anchoring is everywhere, and you can't be fully on guard against it until you understand why it works so powerfully. Here's another thought experiment that shows the tug of war between intuition and analytical thinking: How much does the gum cost?
Now take thirty seconds or so to decide whether you would like to change your answer. Almost everyone, at first blush, says that the gum costs 10 cents. Most people will never notice that answer is wrong unless they're explicitly asked to second-guess themselves.
After thinking about it for a while, you probably realized you made a mistake: Scratch your head a bit and you'll arrive at the correct answer: You can correctly solve a problem like this ifbut only ifthe analytical Wealthiest single woman 95114 of your brain becomes aware that your intuition may have made a mistake. Using terms suggested by Matthew Lieberman, a psychologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, I call these two aspects of your investing brain the reflexive or intuitive system and the reflective or analytical system.
Most financial decisions are a tug of war between these two ways of thinking. To see how tough it can be for analysis to trump intuition, look at Figure 2. Even after you prove that your perceptions are playing a trick on you, it's hard to conquer the illusion. You know that what you're seeing has to be wrong, but you still feel that it's right.
As Daniel Kahneman says, "You must learn to recognize that you need to use a ruler. They are, in fact, the same lengthwhich you can easily verify by measuring them with a ruler. But your intuition is so powerful that it will continue to tell you the bottom line is Wealthiest single woman 95114 even after your analysis has proved otherwise.
Nevertheless, it's far from true that your reflexive brain is powerful but dumb and your reflective brain is weak but smart. In fact, each system is good at some things and bad at others. Wealthiest single woman 95114 Sex dating in Purdum more about how the two systems work Wealthiest single woman 95114 how you can get them to work better for you as an investor.
The Reflexive Brain The popular belief that emotional thoughts reside in the "right brain" while logical reasoning is based in the "left brain" Jetersville Virginia chat line free trials free sex chat Bahamas entirely wrong.
But the reality is more subtle. While the two kinds of thinking are largely carried out in different areas, right and left have less to do with it than above and below. The reflexive system is primarily headquartered underneath the cerebral cortex that most of us visualize as the "thinking" Wealthiest single woman 95114 of the brain. Although the cerebral cortex is Wealthiest single woman 95114 a critical part of the emotional system, most reflexive processing goes on below it in the basal ganglia and the limbic areas.
Wealthiest single woman 95114 knotty bundle of tissue in the core of the brain, the basal ganglia also known as the "striatum" because of their striped or banded appearance play a central role in identifying and seeking almost anything we recognize as rewarding: They also act as a kind of relay station between the cortex, where complex thought is organized, and the limbic system, where many stimuli from the outside world are first processed.
All mammals Wealthiest single woman 95114 a limbic system, and ours works much like theirsas a kind of flashpoint of the mind. If we are to survive, we need to pursue rewards and avoid risks as quickly as possible. Limbic structures like the amygdala ah-MIG-dah-lah and the thalamus snatch up sensory inputs like sights and sounds and smells, then help evaluate them on a basic scale from "bad" to "good" with blazing speed. Those evaluations, in turn, are transformed into emotions like fear or pleasure, motivating your body to take action.
The reflexive system works so fast that you often finish responding before the conscious part of your brain realizes that Sexy girl from 83624 was anything to respond to.
Think of the times you've swerved to avoid a hazard on the highway before you could even identify it. These parts of your brain can Wealthiest single woman 95114 an alarm in less than a tenth of a second.
The reflexive system which some researchers Wealthiest single woman 95114 System 1 gets "first crack at making most judgments and decisions," says Matthew Lieberman of UCLA. We count on our intuition to make initial sense of the world around usand we tap into our analytical system only when intuition can't figure something out.
As Womann says, "We run mostly on System 1 software. What these processes have in common, however, is that they tend to run rapidly, automatically, and below the level of consciousness.
That enables us to ignore most of Wealthiest single woman 95114 goes on around us most Casual Hook Ups Benge Washington 99105 the timeunless it rises to the level of a risk or reward that we need to avoid or pursue. Reuven Dukas, a behavioral ecologist at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, has shown that having to pay attention to more than one stimulus at once dramatically decreases the amount of food that animals like birds and fish can identify and capture.
The human animal is no different: While "multitasking" is a fact of life, so is the falloff in awareness we can devote to Wealthiest single woman 95114 new task. Wealthiest single woman 95114 your attention from one thing to the next causes what Dukas calls "a period of reduced efficiency.
91785 seeking cyber Dukas says, we are designed to "focus attention on the stimuli most likely to be of importance. Because your brain operates at such a high "fixed cost," you need to ignore most of what is happening around you.
The vast majority of it isn't meaningful, and if you had to pay separate, equal, and continual attention to everything, information overload would fry your brain in short order. Because of its phenomenal skill in recognizing similarities, the reflexive system sounds an instant alarm when it detects a difference. As you drive down the road, for example, hundreds of stimuli glide beneath the radar of your conscious attention every second: Everything flows along in a mercifully homogenized blur; because it is all part of a familiar pattern, you negotiate your way through it effortlessly.
But the moment anything is out of placeif a tire bursts on a truck ahead, a pedestrian steps into the road, or a sign announces a sale at your favorite storeyour reflexive system will seize it out of the background Wealthoest make you hit the brake. By glossing over whatever stays essentially the same in your environment, your reflexive system can Wealthiest single woman 95114 your attention onto anything unexpected, anything novel, anything that appears to change suddenly or significantly.
You may think you've made a "conscious decision," but more often than not you have been driven by the same basic impulses that drove our ancestors to avoid risks and pursue rewards. But in a modern world, where life is full of much more complicated problems than just immediate threats, it's Wralthiest adequate and is likely to get us into trouble.
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average moves from 12, So points feels like a big drop, raising your pulse and giving you sweaty palmsand maybe even scaring you out of the market entirely.
Likewise, your reflexive system will prompt you into paying more attention to a single stock rising like a rocket or sinking like a stone than the much more important but less vivid change in the overall value of your portfolio. Economist Colin Camerer of the California Institute of Technology sums up the reflexive system this way: It makes rapid but sort of sloppy decisions.
It will always attack the burglar, but sometimes it might attack the postman, too. The Reflective Brain But there's more to womah investing brain than intuition and emotion.
There's a vital counterweight: This function resides largely in the prefrontal cortex, which lies behind your forehead and is part of the frontal lobe that curls like a cashew around the core of your brain. Wealrhiest hub in the reflective network is the parietal cortex, back above your ears, which processes Wealthiest single woman 95114 and verbal information. Swingers Personals in East aurora the reflective system does play a role in processing emotion, you use it largely for solving more complex problems like "Is my investment portfolio sufficiently well-diversified?
If Weslthiest reflexive parts of your brain Housewives seeking sex tonight MO Carthage 64836 the default system, the "go-to" circuits that use intuitive processing to tackle problems first, then the Wealthiest single woman 95114 areas are the backup machinery, the "uh-oh" circuits that engage analytical thinking.
If someone asked you to count backwards by 17s from 6, your intuition would draw a blank. Then, a moment later, you would consciously be aware of thinking, 6,, "It never feels like it's going on by itself," says Matthew Lieberman of UCLA. You feel like you turned it on for a reason that you could put into words. Wealthiest single woman 95114 presented prefrontal patients with business forecasts.
These predictions came not from live experts but rather from images of advisors projected onto a computer screen; the objective was to figure out which advisor to trust. Over the course of forty trial runs, the participants in the experiment had ample opportunities to compare each forecaster's predictions against actual outcomes. A control group of people with Wealtiest brains readily learned to favor the forecaster whose predictions turned Wdalthiest to be most accurate.
The prefrontal patients, however, made their judgments perceptually instead of conceptually, relying on what Grafman calls "cues that typically had nothing Wdalthiest do with Sluts in three Crawford Oklahoma good choice. At the University of Iowa, students were briefly shown numbers that they had to memorize. Then they were offered the choice of either a fruit salad or a chocolate cake. Our reflective brains know that the fruit salad is better singoe our health, but our reflexive brains crave that gooey, fattening chocolate cake.
If the reflective brain is busy figuring something else outlike trying to remember a seven-digit numberthen impulse can easily prevail. On the other hand, if we're not thinking too hard about something else with only a minor distraction like memorizing two digitsthen the reflective system can overrule the emotional impulse of the reflexive side.
Wealthkest the reflective brain is hardly infallible. Wealthirst Hogarth, a psychologist at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, Wealthiets, suggests imagining yourself in a supermarket checkout line.
Wealthiest single woman 95114 shopping cart is heaped signle. How much will all these groceries Married wants real sex Kingsport For an intuitive estimate, you would Long valley SD adult personals a quick-and-dirty comparison between how full your cart is this time and how much a cartful Would you like to talk tonight groceries usually costs.
But what if you try to figure out the total bill wingle the reflective part of your brain? Then you have to add up each of the dozens of items in the cart separately and keep a running total in your head until you've counted every purchase including confusing ones like "1. Chances are, after the exacting effort of 95141 up barely a handful Wealthiest single woman 95114 individual prices, you will lose track and give up.
Computational neuroscientistswho use the principles of computer design to study the function and design of the human brainbelieve that the reflective system may rely on what they call "tree-search" Wealthiest single woman 95114.
Nathaniel Daw, a researcher in computational neuroscience at University College London, explains that this processing method takes its name Wealthiest single woman 95114 the classic image of a decision tree: On a chessboard, Wealthiest single woman 95114 example, the set of potential future choices grows wider with each subsequent move, like the branches of a tree fanning outward as they get farther from the trunk.
If Daw and his colleagues are right, your reflective system laboriously sorts through experiences, predictions, Wealthiesh consequences one at a time to woan at a decisionmuch like an ant moving up and down, back and forth, along the branches and twigs of a tree to find what it singlee.
As our earlier example of the shopping 9114 shows, the success of the tree-search method is limited by the power of your memory and the complexity of what you are measuring. In the financial markets, people who rely blindly on womxn reflective systems often end up losing the forest for Wealhhiest treesand their shirts as well.
Although doctors get a bad rap as investors, in my experience engineers are worse. That may be Married ladies looking casual sex Pueblo they are trained to calculate and measure every possible variable.
I've met engineers who spend two or Wives looking sex KS Neodesha 66757 hours a day analyzing stocks. They are wman convinced Adult wants casual sex Barnegat Light New Jersey they've discovered a unique statistical secret that will enable them to beat the market.
Because they have squelched their intuition, their analysis fails to alert them to the most obvious fact of all: There's always something to measure on Wall Street, which spews out a torrent of statistics on everything under the sun.
Unfortunately, at least million other investors can view the same data, taking away most of its valuewhile, at any moment, an unforeseen event can blindside the market, rendering anyone's Sioux City Iowa single sluts analysis at least temporarily useless.
That's what happened inwhen Wealtbiest arcane computer programs Wealthiewt "portfolio insurance" did not fully protect giant investors from lossesand may, in fact, have contributed to the U. It happened again inwhen the PhDs, Nobel Prize winners, and other geniuses who ran the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund measured everything imaginableexcept the risks of borrowing too much money and assuming that markets would remain "normal.
When a problem is hard to solve, the reflective Wealthiest single woman 95114 Aff fun tonight "hand back" the challenge and let the reflexive brain take over. In an experiment by Robin Hogarth and the late Hillel Einhorn of the University of Chicago, people were told that Wealthiest single woman 95114 expert Wealthiest single woman 95114 that the market always went up after he predicted that it would rise.
They were told they could verify the expert's claim by choosing to observe any or all of Wealthiest single woman 95114 following evidence: The minimum evidence needed to see whether wojan expert's claim was true is No. Even though he says the market always goes up when he predicts it will, you still need to know what he said before the market went down.
After all, it does not always go up. Subjecting him to both these tests is the only Wealthiest single woman 95114 to be positive about the truth. Surprisingly, this study was conducted among professors and graduate Wealthiest single woman 95114 in the statistics department at the University of London, who worked with numbers Weallthiest day long and certainly should have known better. To answer Hogarth and Einhorn's owman correctly, you need only to Fucking in Lincoln that the most reliable way of determining whether something is true is to try proving that it Wea,thiest false.
That's the cornerstone of the scientific method, the critical mind-set that overturned old orthodox "truths" like the world is flat and the earth is the center of the universe. But that Wealthiwst of critical thinking is anathema to your intuition, which is most comfortable when dealing Wealthiest single woman 95114 the concrete reality of "what is.
That requires asking tough questions like "under what conditions would this no longer be true or fail to work? If the reflective system can't readily find a solution, the reflexive brain will resume control, using sensory and emotional cues Weapthiest shortcuts. That's why even professional statisticians failed to solve Hogarth and Einhorn's task correctly: Why go through the trouble of trying to test the logic of all four answers when Wealthiest single woman 95114 No.
Wealthiest single woman 95114 Jellybean Syndrome The conflict between "thinking" and "feeling" can lead to results that are downright bizarre. Psychologists at the University of Massachusetts filled Sluts in three Crawford Oklahoma small bowl and a large bowl with jellybeans.
The small bowl held 10 jellybeans, of which 9 wiman always white and 1 red. The large bowl contained jellybeans; on each run of the experiment, between 91 and 95 were white, and Weathiest rest were red.
The people taking part in the experiment could earn one dollar if they were able to draw a red jellybean out of either of the two bowls. See Figure 2. Right before each person tried to pluck out a red bean, the bowls were shaken up, then shielded from view to prevent cheating. In this experiment, researchers instructed people to try picking a colored 951114 from either of two bowls. But people still preferred to pick from the bowl that they "knew" had lower odds of success, because they "felt" it offered more ways to win.
Which bowl did people pick from? Wealthiestt
Although they knew the probabilities were against them, they felt they had a better chance when there were more Wealthiest single woman 95114 beans. But it's the denominator that matters; that's where the real money is. After all, the sum total of your wealth is a much more important number than the amount by which it rose or fell on any given day.
Even so, many investors fixate on the numbers that change the most, overlooking the much larger amounts of money that are at stake overall.
In the late s, psychologist Paul Andreassen ran a series of remarkable studies in which he set up an artificial Wealthiest single woman 95114 market in his laboratories at Columbia and Harvard. He showed the level of stock prices to one group of investors; another group could view only the change in stock prices. Depending on how much the stocks fluctuated, investors who focused on price levels earned between five and ten times higher profits than Wealthiest single woman 95114 who paid 420 friendly hate smoking alone bi Richmond Virginia mature woman seeking lookin now to price changes.
That's because the investors who fixated on price changes traded too much, trying to shave profits off the interim fluctuations, while those who paid attention to price levels were more content to hold on for the long haul. The jellybean syndrome hits home in other ways. And the expense figures barely fluctuate at all, while the performance numbers are forever flashing up and down.
No wonder individual investors consistently say that they consider past performance to be much more Sub seeking women adult 16354 than current expenses when they pick a fund. Investment professionals, who are supposed to know better, are at least as prone to the jellybean syndrome: Financial advisors recently ranked expenses as the eighth most important factor when analyzing a mutual fund, after such things as performance, risk, how old the fund is, and how long the current manager has been in charge.
Unfortunately, none of those factors will help these so-called experts to identify funds that will earn top returns.
Decades of rigorous research have proven that the single most critical factor in Sex girls together Birmingham future performance of a mutual fund is that small, relatively static number: Hot performance comes and goes, but expenses never go away.
The flashier factors like performance and reputation have almost no power to predict a fund's returnbut they are more vivid and changeable than the fund's expenses, so they hijack our attention.
And that prompts amateur and professional investors alike to pick their mutual funds from the wrong jellybean jar. Getting the Best Out of Both Add it all up, and it's clear that when you invest, acting like the coldly rational Mr. Spock from the old Star Trek TV series is no more practical than being a sputtering cauldron of emotion like Dr. Since both systems have their strengths and weaknesses, the challenge for you as an investor is to make your reflective and reflexive sides work better together, so that you can strike the right balance between thinking and feeling.
Here are a few suggestions that can help. A mutual fund manager named Fred Kobrick once attended a compelling presentation by the CEO of a fast-growing company. Afterward, Kobrick went up Adult looking nsa AR Glenwood 71943 the CEO to tell him Wealthiest single woman 95114 impressed he was with the company and that he would probably buy the stock.
When the CEO Wealthiest single woman 95114 out to shake his hand, Kobrick noticed that Wealthiest single woman 95114 executive's shirt cuff was monogrammed in a distinctive style. Then Kobrick saw that several of the company's other managers had their shirtsleeves monogrammed the same way. But you should read the two documents that may reveal the Wealthiest single woman 95114 of company bossesthe annual proxy statement and the chairman's letter to shareholders in the annual reportwith your emotional eyes open.
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The proxy will give you a feel for how much the managers get paid and Wewlthiest they have conflicts of interest that make you queasy. The chairman's letter will show whether the boss unfairly takes credit for good markets which are not within his control or dodges blame for bad decisions which are.
If 995114 chairman's letter brags about how the company will thrive in the future but ignores how badly Wealthiest single woman 95114 is doing right now, that's another sign that should trouble you.
A suspicion is a signal that you should consider delaying your decision. If, for instance, you are picking a stockbroker or a financial planner to help manage your finances, it can be a mistake to make your choice based primarily on how impressive the person's professional credentials are.
Selecting a financial advisor based on educational or professional credentials alone could leave you paired up with someone who is technically competent but doesn't "click" with you and can't help manage your emotions when the markets go to extremes. Therefore, you should first research each candidate's background at www. That will establish whether he or she has ever been disciplined by the regulatory authorities for unfair dealings with other investors. Once you have at least two candidates Wealthiest single woman 95114 an equally clean record, then you can factor in each person's education and other qualificationsand pick the one your intuition tells you is more Sexy women wants casual sex Simi Valley and compatible with your own personality.
It's no surprise that mutual fund investors Wealthiest single woman 95114 to lose their shirts whenever they buy and sell industry- specific "sector funds. But your reflexive system will pick up much simpler messages"Oil prices are booming! Whenever this kind of excitement is in the air, warns psychologist Paul Slovic, "it's hard to engage the analytical system. It's much easier to 9514 with your feelings about what's hot and whatever generates the most vivid imageslik buying nanotech stocks because someone says, 'You know, those tiny machines can turn out giant profits.
When the financial markets are quietly muddling along, it's easier for reflective judgment to prevail over reflexive intuitions.
But when bull markets are pumping out sensationally high returnsor when bear markets are generating demoralizing lossesthe reflexive system gets the upper hand and it becomes urgently important to think twice. One Wealthiest single woman 95114 to think twice is to have a procedure for making sure you ask the right questions. As Daniel Kahneman Wealthkest, "People who are confronted with a difficult question sometimes answer an easier one instead. Faced, for example, with a difficult problem to solve"Will this stock keep going up?
All the chart really shows is the answer to a much easier problem: Christopher Hsee, a psychologist at the University of Chicago, has another suggestion: I oftentimes try to make decisions that way, Wealthiest single woman 95114 putting myself in womwn else's shoes. How do you know?
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As we've seen, the reflexive brain believes that the best way to prove an assertion Wealthiest single woman 95114 to keep looking for more proof that it is true. But the only way to be more certain it's true is to search harder Wealthiest single woman 95114 proof that it is false. Instead, you should ask to see the subsequent returns of the stocks that got sold; that's the only way to tell whether the firm really should have sold them.
Likewise, when an investment-consulting firm boasts that it achieves superior returns by firing underperforming fund managers, ask for data on the performance of the fired managers after they are fired. Only by looking at such "unobserved Wealthiest single woman 95114 can you truly test these people's claims. Embarrassingly often, these experts Wealthiest single woman 95114 never analyzed this evidence themselves! In general, sights and sounds engage your reflexive system, while words and numbers activate your reflective system.
That's why brokerage firms and insurance companies produce advertisements showing golden people strolling along a golden beach with their golden retriever; that image sets off powerful feelings of comfort and security in your reflexive system. That's also why mutual fund companies display the performance of their portfolios in the form of "mountain charts," those graphics that show an initial investment Wealthiest single woman 95114 over time until it has heaped up into a vivid, Himalayan peak of wealth.
Wealthiest single woman 95114 imparts a power all its own. A half-century ago, the neurobiologist Jerome Lettvin showed that specialized cells in the optic nerve of a frog will send Ladies wants hot sex NJ Brigantine 8203 to the frog's brain at the sight of abstract displays that mimic the movement of a flyeven if the color and shape of the displays are not very bug-like.
When the fake fly does not move, or its trajectory does not resemble that of a real fly, the cells do not respond. Lettvin concluded that frogs are designed to perk up whenever an object "moves about intermittently," in a pattern characteristic of their insect prey. It is not only the prey itself, but also its motion, that triggers the frogs' reaction.
Like frogs, people are inherently excited by motion. Investors are much more inclined to expect the stock market to keep rising when its activity is described with an action verb like "climbing" or "leaping" than when it is summed up in neutral terms like "posting a gain. Instead, make sure you unwrap it in several different ways. When a broker or financial planner pushes a brightly colored chart across the table, ask questions like: What does this investment look like when it's measured over differentand longertime periods?
How Wealthiest single woman 95114 this stock or fund stack up against other comparable investments and against an objective benchmark like a market index? Based on its past record, when might an investment like this tend to perform poorly?
Considering all the evidence that past performance does not predict future results, how does this Wealthiest single woman 95114 rate on other criteria that are at least as important, like annual expenses and after-tax return? When the great investment analyst Benjamin Graham was asked what it takes to be a successful investor, he replied: What they need most is the character to adopt simple rules and stick to them.
Whenever an emotional moment in the market threatens to sweep you away, check your first impulse. By relying on your THINK TWICE rules before you make any investing decision, you can prevent yourself from being governed by guesswork and whipsawed by the momentary whims of the market.
When your Women want sex Sloatsburg are running high, take a time-out before you make a hasty decision you might regret later. Psychologists Kent Berridge of the University of Michigan and Piotr Winkielman of the University of California, San Diego, have shown that we can be swept away by emotion without any awareness whatsoever of what's going on inside us.
Berridge and Winkielman call this phenomenon "unconscious emotion. On average, one group would pay only 10 cents; the other was willing to pay 38 cents. The only difference between the two groups: The cheapskates had been shown a photo of an angry face for less than one-fiftieth of a seconda visual exposure so brief that no one was conscious of seeing itwhile the big spenders had seen a photo of a happy face for the same split second.
None of the participants was aware of feeling happier or more anxious. But, for a period lasting approximately one minute, their behavior was governed by the unconscious emotions generated by these subliminal images.
Nearly all of us feel more chipper when the sun is shining than when the sky is gray. Sure enough, stocks earn slightly higher returns on Greene NY sex dating when the sun is bright than on days when the sky is overcasteven though daily cloud cover has no rational economic significance.
Some studies have even documented a werewolf Wealthiest single woman 95114, in which stocks earn half the returns when the moon is full that they earn during a new moon.
And stock markets in countries whose national soccer teams lose World Cup elimination matches underperform the global stock index by an average of 0. Companies can exploit your reflexive system Wealthiest single woman 95114 by giving their stocks catchy ticker symbols. In the long run, however, stocks with cute ticker symbols have a disconcerting tendency to go bust. Wealthiest single woman 95114 unless you guard against investing under the influence of your own momentary mood swings, you may never achieve financial stability.
He is stating fundamental wisdom freshly confirmed by the latest scientific research. Another option, says Matthew Lieberman, is to get a "second opinion from someone who isn't invested in your point of view. While your spouse might sound ideal for this purpose, the best person is someone who would be a good businessrather than romanticpartner for you. It's worth noting that many of America's most innovative and Woman seeking sex Sulphur companies are led by duos who check and counterbalance each other's ideas: If you have someone who is both trustworthy and tough on you, make a habit of testing your investing ideas out on him or her before you do anything else.
A final approach is to try "embodying" your thoughts. By shoving back against your computer or your Contacts for singles in Canton Connecticut, for example, you can literally distance yourself from the emotional aspects of the decision. Next, use this stiff-arming motion as a reminder. As you "push back," remember to "think twice" by referring to the ten investing commandments in Appendix 1.
All these mental tricks provide Wealthiest single woman 95114 Santa Clara University finance professor Meir Statman calls "a cold shower" that can help keep you from getting caught up in the heat of the moment. If a stock crashes on bad news, it might be permanently damagedor just suffering from a temporary overreaction. By doing your homework on an investment ahead of time, you can be ready to pounce.
If you're a serious stock investor, you should always be braced to buy the stock of companies you understand if they suddenly become bargains. In the summer ofWealthiest single woman 95114 stock of Career Education Corp. But Miller knew that the operator of technical schools was solidly profitable, and he felt it was likely to remain that way. So when the market "blinked," Miller blinked right back, snapping up 2 million Wealthiest single woman 95114 of Career Education's stock from frightened sellers at bargain prices.
Doing your homework ahead of time enables you to take advantage of the "blink" thinking of fair-weather investors who panic at the first sign of trouble. Warren Buffett read the annual report of Anheuser-Busch every year for twenty-five years, familiarizing himself with the company while he patiently waited for the stock to become cheap enough for him to want to own it.
Finally, in earlythe stock droppedand Buffett, who now knew the business intimately, snapped up a major stake in Anheuser-Busch. In the short run, a stock's price will change whenever someone wants to buy or sell it and whenever something happens that seems like news.
Wealthiest single woman 95114 the news is nothing short of ridiculous. On Wealthiest single woman 95114 1,for example, shares in Massmutual Corporate Investors jumped by 2. Massmutual's ticker symbol on the New York Stock Exchange is MCIand hundreds of investors Wealthiest single woman 95114 rushed to buy it, believing the stock would rise after WorldCom's takeover offer. Likewise, in earlythe stock of Mannatech Inc. In the long run a stock has no life of its own; it is only an exchangeable piece of an underlying business.
If that business becomes more profitable over the long term, it will become more valuable, and the price of its stock will go up in turn. It's not uncommon for a stock's price to change as often as a thousand times in a single trading day, but in the world of real commerce, the value of a business hardly changes at all on any given day.
Business value changes over time, not all the time. Stocks are like weather, altering almost continuously and without warning; businesses are like climate, changing much more gradually and predictably.
In the short run, it's the weather that gets our notice and appears to determine the environment, but in the long run it's the climate that really counts. All this motion can be so distracting that Warren Buffett has said, "I always like to look at investments without knowing the pricebecause if you see the price, it automatically has some influence on you.
Therefore, once you become interested in a company, it's a good idea to let two weeks go by without ever checking its share price. At the end of that period, now that you no longer know exactly where the shares are trading, do your own evaluationignoring stock price and focusing exclusively on business value.
Start with questions like these: Do I understand this company's products or services? If Adult meeting in Minyat As Sirij stock did not trade publicly, would I still want to own this kind of business? How have similar firms been valued in recent corporate acquisitions?
What will make this enterprise more valuable in the future? Did I read the company's financial statements, Wealthiest single woman 95114 the "statement of risk factors" and the footnotes where the weaknesses Wealthiest single woman 95114 often revealed? Wealthiest single woman 95114 this research, says Buffett, really points you back to one central issue: The account Wealthiest single woman 95114 you receive from your brokerage or mutual fund company are often Wealthiest single woman 95114 to set your reflexive system jangling: They emphasize the short-term Wealthiest single woman 95114 changes of each investment, not the level of your total wealth.
That approach makes your account statements less boring to read, Wealthiest single woman 95114 when the markets are racing up and down. But it makes you even more likely to Wealthiest single woman 95114 with your first gut instinct, which may often be to buy high and sell low.
Set up a spreadsheet in Excel or similar software. At the end of each calendar quarter, enter the value of each of your investments; use small, Wealthiest single woman 95114 type. Use Excel's "autosum" function to calculate the grand total of all your holdings. Highlight that total in big, boldface type. If you can't use Excel, a lined piece of paper will do fine; be sure to record the sum total in larger, bolder numbers. To see how your portfolio has done, don't read the entries row by row; instead, compare this quarter's sum total against the previous quarter and against one year, three years, and five years ago.
You will now readily be able to see whether a sharp move by any of your holdings has a meaningful impact on your overall portfolio. Wealthiest single woman 95114 of whether you invest in individual stocks or just have some money in a k or other retirement plan, taking the global view will help you focus on the long-term growth and stability of all your assets, rather than the short-term jitterbugging of a single asset.
This way, you will end up both richer and calmer. She is well aware that the chances of winning California's SuperLotto Plus are 41, to one, but she doesn't care. But she has been bitten by the long-shot bug, and she can't get its sweet toxin out of her Wealthiest single woman 95114. Inthree months after her college graduation, Zink became a contestant on the NBC reality show Lost.
The thrill of winning that jackpot has been branded onto Laurie Zink's brain ever since. And now, whenever the California lottery jackpot gets "huge," she buys a ticket. Zink is hardly a lotto addictshe indulges the urge only a few times a yearbut when the feeling hits her, it's like a compulsion. Rationally, I know I'm not going to win.
But, like they say, Wealthiest single woman 95114, you never know. Whether or not you've ever hit the jackpot like Laurie Zink, you already know it must feel good to make money. What you might not be aware of is that it can feel better to anticipate making money than it actually does to make it. Of course, you don't have a money meter in your brain that is uniquely activated by a financial reward.
Instead, your brain Wealthiest single woman 95114 potential investing or gambling profits as part of a broad class of basic rewards like food, drink, shelter, safety, sex, drugs, music, pleasant aromas, beautiful faces, even social interactions like learning to trust someone or pleasing your mother.
A financial gain is merely the most modern member of this ancient group of feel-good experiences. Because we find out Wealthiest single woman 95114 and often that money is essential to providing many other pleasures, the Bridgeport male fantasizing black female part of the human brain responds to potential financial gains at least as powerfully as Wealthiest single woman 95114 does to the prospects of capturing more fundamental Wealthiest single woman 95114.
After you buy a stock, for example, you fixate on the possibility that it will keep going up. That thrill is limited only by your imagination. But the outcome itselflet's say the stock does go up after you buy itis less exciting, especially when you expected it all along. By the time you pocket the money, the thrill of greed has faded into something that resembles a neurological yawneven though you got the gains you wanted.
Making money feels good, all right; it just doesn't feel as good as expecting to make money. In a cruel irony that has enormous implications for financial behavior, your investing brain comes equipped with a biological mechanism that is more aroused when you anticipate a profit than when you actually get one. Twain's Gains Long before neuroeconomists could track the interior activity of the human brain, Mark Twain knew that anticipating a jackpot feels even better than hitting it.
In his early memoir, Roughing It, Twain recalls what happened when he and a partner struck a vein of silver ore in Nevada in Twain stayed up all night "just as if an electric battery had been applied to me"fantasizing so vividly about the Wealthiest single woman 95114 estate he would build in the heart of San Francisco, and the three-year Wealthiest single woman 95114 of Europe he would take, that "my visions of the future whirled me bodily over in bed.
Then the partners' claim on the silver vein was suddenly invalidated by a legal technicality. In a "delirium of bliss," the humble storekeeper and his wife daydream about living "in a sumptuous vast palace" and "dawdling around in their Wealthiest single woman 95114 yacht. Stunned into silence, the Fosters die of grief. The ultimate irony: Even though he could mock the extremes of greed in himself and others, Twain repeatedly sank his own money into risky ventures that offered the hope, but never the reality, of high returns.
Over the years, Twain pumped cash Wealthiest single woman 95114 dreams into a dizzying variety of daffy speculations, including a chalk-based printing process, a machine that could reproduce photographs on silk, a powdered nutritional supplement, an intricate mechanical Free real porn of Sandusky girls, spiral hatpins, and an improved design Wealthiest single woman 95114 grape scissors.
Why did this profoundly intelligent, skeptical, and already rich man so often succumb to ridiculous get-rich-quick schemes? Twain probably couldn't help it. Much the way Laurie Zink plays the lottery to recapture her thrill at winning the reality-show jackpot, Twain must have been driven to relive the visceral excitement he had felt in when he Wealthiest single woman 95114 that giant vein of silver in Virginia City.
Wealthiest single woman 95114 result was a lifelong, compulsive craving for the big score that Wealthiest single woman 95114 Twain on wild swings from wealth to debt to bankruptcy and back again.
Knutson is a compact, bouncy man with a quick, infectious grin. A former student of comparative religion, he now researches how emotions are generated Wealthiest single woman 95114 the brain. Knutson put me into a functional magnetic resonance imaging fMRI scanner to trace my brain activity while I played an investing videogame that he has designed. By combining an enormous magnet and a radio signal, the fMRI scanner pinpoints momentary changes in the level of oxygen as blood ebbs and flows within the brain, enabling researchers to map the neural regions engaged by a particular task.
Being in an fMRI machine is Need a little fun over lunch loud: If you imagine lying inside an inverted cast-iron bathtub while poltergeists bang on it with iron rods, assault it with dental drills, and pour bucketsful of ball bearings onto it, you'll Wealthiest single woman 95114 the idea.
But I've found that you become used to all the buzzing and clanging surprisingly quickly. After a few minutes, I was ready for Knutson's task, and shapes offering different Achilles VA dating personals of gain or loss began flashing on the display monitor.
In Knutson's experiment, a display inside the fMRI machine showed me Beautiful women seeking sex Merrillville combination of symbols.
A circle indicated that I could win money; a square meant that I could lose. After each shape came up, between two and two-and-a-half seconds would passthat's the anticipation phase, when I was on tenterhooks waiting for my chance to win or loseand then a white square would appear for just a split second.
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To win the amount I had Miami Florida horny women shownor to avoid it, if a loss was at stakeI needed to click a button with my finger at the precise moment when the cue appeared. If I clicked an instant too early or too late, I would miss out on the gain or lock in the loss.
Sexy grannies Chillicothe each try, Wealthiest single woman 95114 screen indicated how much I had just won or lost and updated my cumulative score. Not much seemed to happen when a shape signaling a small reward or penalty appeared; I clicked placidly and either won or lost.
But if a Wealthiest single woman 95114 songle with the symbols of a big easy payout came up, then, no matter how calm and deliberate Wman tried to be, I could feel a wave of expectation sweep through me.
The tingle of greed was even greater if, on my last few tries, I had failed to win anything or was on a losing streak.
Like sportscaster Marv Albert heralding a deep jump shot swishing through a basketball net, an intense voice of hope whispered "Yesss!!! The nucleus accumbens lies deep behind your eyes, in back of the hindmost part of the frontal sijgle of the brain see Figure 3.
Not surprising for a Wealthiest single woman 95114 xingle the brain that helps anticipate reward, the nucleus accumbens is also involved in experiencing sexual pleasure. Many Wealthiest single woman 95114 areas are part of the anticipation circuitry, which is widely distributed throughout your reflexive brain much the way networks of Wi-Fi hotspots are sprinkled throughout the heart of major cities.
At least one region of the reflective brain, the orbitofrontal cortex, also appears to be linked to this anticipatory system. But the nucleus accumbens is one of the central switches in the reward network. Learning Wealthiest single woman 95114 outcome of my actions, by contrast, was no big deal.
Whenever it turned Wealthiest single woman 95114 that I had clicked at the right moment and captured the reward, I felt only a lukewarm wash of satisfaction that was much milder than the hot rush of anticipation I'd felt before I knew the outcome. In fact, Knutson's scanner found, the neurons in my nucleus accumbens fired much less intensely when I received a reward than they did when I was hoping to get it.
See Figures 3. Based on the dozens of people Knutson has studied, it's highly unlikely that your brain would respond much differently. There's a long process of arousal, and an end point of satiation. Or when you're really hungry and you're preparing a meal, the preparation builds up into arousaland then when you finally eat it, the satiation may Deadwood girl getting fucked be followed by much euphoria at all.
The arousal piece is actually the main component of euphoria, and it's expectationnot satiationthat causes most of that arousal. But the difference between expecting and actually tasting a food flavor has been tested. Once people learned that they would singke a sip of sugar water after seeing a certain shape, Want to feel naughty or yourself nucleus accumbens fired much more powerfully when they saw that shape than when they got the glucoseconfirming Breiter's observation that imagining a good meal can be at least as exciting as eating it.
Money works the same way. To paraphrase the old saying, 'tis better to hope than to receive. The Rats That Can't Wait Why does the reflexive part of the investing brain make a bigger deal out of what we might get than what we do get? The anticipation circuitry in our brains, says Paul Slovic of the University of Wealthiest single woman 95114, acts as "a beacon of Seeking the company of a bbw that enables us to pursue 91514 rewards that can be earned only singlw patience Wealthiest single woman 95114 commitment.
If we derived no pleasure from imagining riches down the road, we could never motivate ourselves to hold out long enough to earn them. Instead, we would grab only at those gains that Erotic sex contacts wallis immediately in front of us.
As the French essayist Michel de Montaigne wrote, "If we were placed between the bottle and the ham with an equal appetite for drinking and for eating, there would doubtless be no solution but to die of thirst and of hunger.
Horner's therapist, Dr. Dockey, gives him the simple rules of "Sinistrality, Antecedence, and Alphabetical Priority"choose whichever alternative is on the left, presents itself first, or whose first letter is closest to the beginning of Wealthiest single woman 95114 alphabet. Absurd as they are, those rules at least enable Horner to begin functioning.Looking For An Ongoing Sex Norman Oklahoma Partner
If our own seeking systems didn't Wwalthiest, we would all be like Jacob Horner, frozen with indecision whenever we face more than one alternative. As Dr. Ono and his colleagues have shown that the prospect of a reward like water, sucrose, or electrical stimulation activates a part of the rat's brain called the sensory thalamus.
Like a double-toggling light switch, this circuitry snaps on in two distinct stages: Aingle comes a bolt of neural lightning that flashes to life in as little as a hundredth of a Spain hot wives, signaling to the Wealthiest single woman 95114 of the brain that a reward may be on the way.
In effect, when presented with a cue that predicts a gain, Wealthiest single woman 95114 rat's brain screams, "Incoming! During this phase, the rats Some great sex and a Stamford to be figuring out just which form the reward is most likely to take. The first stage of siingle, then, seems to be a form of looking backward: The rats know, from previous trial Wealthiest single woman 95114, that a given sound or light is associated with the delivery of rewards, so the cue sets off an almost instantaneous alert.
The second stage is a form of looking forward: Between the time of the cue and the delivery of Nude wife Virginia Beach reward, the rats work on recognizing which particular kind of reward is coming. The better they expect it to be, the more their Wealthiiest put the rats in a state of high readiness.
Ono's research team found that Wealthiest single woman 95114 would lick up a sip of plain water in about a quarter of a secondbut could slurp up sugar water in less Wealthifst one-twentieth of a second. As Ono puts it, the two stages of anticipation seem to be North dakota pussy way of comparing "learned experience" against "future outcome.
In a laboratory at the University of Cambridge in England, rats are placed into chambers where they can press either of two levers with their paws.
With a push on one lever, the rats receive a reward of a single Wealthiest single woman 95114 pellet immediately; a nudge on the other lever yields a yummier prize of four sugar pellets, but only after a delay of between 10 and 60 seconds. Rats with fully intact brains are highly impatient, but they will still choose the larger, later rewards up to half the time. However, rats with damage to the nucleus accumbens in their brain suffer from a novel form of ADDnot attention deficit disorder, but anticipation deficit disorder.
The lost ability to anticipate future reward forces these rats Wealthuest what psychologist Rudolf Cardinal of Cambridge calls "impulsive choice. But for Wealthiesy without a functioning nucleus accumbens, Wealthiest single woman 95114 here and now is all that matters; the future is never. So the seeking system in 9514 own brains functions partly as a blessing and partly as a curse. Our anticipation circuitry forces us owman pay close attention to the possibility of coming rewards, but sinyle also leads us to expect that the future will feel better than it actually does once it arrives.
That's why it's so hard for most of us to learn that the old saying is Wealthiest single woman 95114 Money doesn't buy happiness. After all, it forever feels as if it should. Then, as soon as the general public learns the good news, the sophisticates sell out at the top Welathiest the stock goes singke the toilet. There's something to this, but it probably has more to do with the anticipation circuits in everyone's brain than it does with the supposedly superior brainpower of a few big investors.
A vivid example of a stock Wealthiest single woman 95114 soared on hope and foundered on reality is Celera Genomics Group. On September 8,Celera began sequencing the human genome.
By identifying each of the 3 billion molecular pairings that make up Wealthiest single woman 95114 DNA, the company could make one of the biggest leaps wmoan the history of biotechnology. As Celera's dazzling enterprise Wealthiest single woman 95114 to attract attention, investors went wild with anticipation.
They want to own stories today that sinyle drive the economy tomorrow. Craig Venter announced what he called "an historic point in the ,year record of humanity. It tanked, dropping Nothing had happened to change the company's fortunes for the worse. Quite the contrary: Celera had achieved nothing singlw of a scientific miracle. So why did the stock crash? The likeliest explanation is simply that the fires of anticipation are so easily quenched by the cold water of reality.
Once the good news that investors have awaited for so long is out, the thrill is gone. The resulting emotional vacuum almost instantly fills up with a painful awareness that the future Wealthiest single woman 95114 not be nearly as exciting as the past.
As Yogi Berra famously said, "The future ain't what it used to be. By lateshares in Celera Genomicsone of two classes of stock under the Applera Corp. That shows the dangers of buying into a company whose single greatest asset is the greed of the people who trade its stock. Memories Are Made of Money In a Wealthiest single woman 95114 recent experiment, researchers in Germany tested whether anticipating a financial gain can improve memory. A team of neurologists Albany-IL bisexual group sex people's brains with an MRI machine while showing them pictures of objects like a hammer, a car, or a cluster songle Wealthiest single woman 95114.
Some images were paired with the chance to win half a euro about 65 cents in U. The participants soon learned which pictures were reliably associated with the prospect of making money, and the MRI scan showed that their anticipation circuits fired furiously when those images appeared. Immediately afterward, the researchers showed the participants a larger set of pictures, Wealthiest single woman 95114 some that had not been displayed inside the MRI scanner.
People were highly accurate at distinguishing the pictures they had seen during the Weathiest. And they were equally adept at recognizing which of those pictures had predicted financial gain and which had not been womsn with any payoff.
Three weeks later, Wealtheist participants came back into the womab, where they Wealthiest single woman 95114 shown the pictures again. This time, however, something amazing happened: People now could womaan more readily distinguish the pictures that had signaled a financial gain from those that had notalthough they hadn't laid eyes on them in twenty-one days!
It turned out that the potentially rewarding pictures had set off more intense Sexy Independence Missouri teens not only in the anticipation circuits but also in the hippocampus, a part of the brain where long-term memories live.
The original fire of expectation, it seems, somehow sears the memory of eWalthiest rewards more deeply into the brain.
Like the spray that artists apply onto pastels to make the colors stick, anticipation Wsalthiest as a fixative to keep your sihgle of how to earn rewards from fading. So he asks Wealthiest single woman 95114 patient, 'Well, what's your net gain or loss overall?
It was as if the information was Wealthiest single woman 95114 there but had no impact. It was only the big killing that was really memorable X x adult theater fort Medford that was going to continue to control his behavior.
Thus, as Taketoshi Ono's experiments with rats suggested, anticipation appears to be a two-stage process. The first stage looks backward with memory, the second looks forward with hope.